A Note on Coverage
This dataset restricts to autocratic leaders classified as closed or electoral autocracies by V-Dem’s Regimes of the World (v2x_regime ≤ 1). Of the 2,090 leader-spells in Archigos 4.1 (post-1946), approximately 1,075 are matched to Wikidata entities, and 497 unique leaders pass the autocracy filter — covering 123 countries. The excluded leaders are either democrats or could not be linked to Wikidata.
Because documentation is correlated with regime prominence, missingness is not random: obscure autocrats are more likely to be absent than well-known ones. Among covered leaders, Wikidata-sourced indicators default to 0 when no claims exist, conflating “absent” with “undocumented.” Constitute Project indicators are missing for ~5% of leaders whose countries lack digitised constitutions.
Personalism is estimated using a bifactor 2PL IRT model with a general personalism factor and two specific factors (institutional power and personality cult). The general factor score (θ) is reported as the primary measure. The model handles within-leader missing indicators under a missing-at-random assumption.
Data Coverage
Proportion of the Archigos leader universe with coded data, overall and per indicator.
Composite Personalism Score by Leader
Score = proportion of coded indicators that are positive (0–1 scale). Higher = more personalist features documented.
Indicator Prevalence
Share of leaders for whom each indicator is coded as present.
Power Concentration vs. Personality Cult
Each point is a leader. X-axis = power concentration indicators; Y-axis = personality cult indicators.
Each indicator captures a different observable feature of personalist rule. They are grouped into two dimensions: Power Concentration and Personality Cult.
Bifactor 2PL IRT model estimated via marginal maximum likelihood (mirt in R). The model has a general personalism factor (θ) plus two specific factors: Institutional (term limits, president-for-life, family in government, loyalty oath) and Cult/Symbolic (places named, titles, monuments, birthday, hagiography, cult of personality, currency portrait). Scores below are the general factor (θ) from the R-estimated model.
Item Characteristic Curves
Probability of indicator = 1 as a function of latent personalism (θ). Steeper curves indicate higher discrimination.
Item & Test Information
Information provided by each item and the full test. Higher information = more precise measurement at that θ level.
Item Parameters
aG = general factor loading; aS = specific factor loading. Higher general loading = item better measures overall personalism.
Response Pattern Distribution
Observed frequency of each indicator response pattern and the corresponding estimated θ.
Leader Rankings by Latent Personalism (θ)
EAP estimates of the latent trait with posterior standard deviation. Higher θ = more personalist features.
Indicator Codebook
Each leader-spell is coded on 11 binary indicators drawn from four public sources. Indicators are grouped into two dimensions: Institutional Power Concentration and Personality Cult. Where multiple sources cover the same indicator, they are combined with OR logic: a leader is coded 1 if any source returns a positive match. The IRT model treats unmatched leaders as missing (not zero).
All coding is automated and reproducible. Source scripts are in the GitHub repository.
Institutional Power Concentration
Term Limits Absent
Source: Constitute Project
Coded 1 if the national constitution in force during the leader's tenure contains no mention of executive term limits. The script fetches the full text of each constitution from the Constitute Project API, then searches for keywords indicating term limits (e.g., “two terms,” “not be re-elected,” “renewable once”). If no such language is found, the indicator is coded 1. Missing for ~5% of leaders whose countries lack digitised constitutions.
President for Life
Source: Constitute Project + Wikipedia
Coded 1 if either of the following is true (OR logic):
- The constitution contains language such as “president for life,” “elected for life,” or “unlimited number of terms.”
- The leader's Wikipedia page is categorised under
Category:Presidents for lifeor its subcategories.
Family in Government
Source: Wikidata (SPARQL)
Coded 1 if ≥2 family members held government positions. The script queries Wikidata for the leader's relatives (P26 spouse, P40 child, P3373 sibling, P22/P25 parents) and checks whether any hold positions (P39) in government. Threshold is ≥2 distinct family members to avoid false positives from a single ceremonial appointment.
Loyalty Oath to Person
Source: Constitute Project
Coded 1 if the constitutional text contains language directing oaths of allegiance or loyalty to the president or leader personally rather than to the constitution or the state. Matched via keywords such as “oath to the president,” “allegiance to the president,” “loyalty to the leader.”
Personality Cult
Places Named After
Source: Wikidata (SPARQL) + Wikipedia text
Coded 1 if ≥2 places (cities, streets, institutions, etc.) are named after the leader (Wikidata P138 “named after”), or if the leader's Wikipedia article text mentions places named in their honour. Threshold is ≥2 from Wikidata to avoid false positives from a single university or airport.
Grandiose Titles
Source: Wikidata (SPARQL) + Wikipedia text
Coded 1 if the leader holds ≥1 honorific title in Wikidata (P511 honorific prefix, P1035 honorific suffix, P97 noble title, P1813 short name, P1449 nickname), or if their Wikipedia article mentions non-standard titles such as “Father of the Nation,” “Eternal Leader,” “Generalissimo,” or “Turkmenbashi.”
Monuments / Statues
Source: Wikidata (SPARQL) + Wikipedia text
Coded 1 if ≥1 statue, monument, or sculpture named after the leader exists in Wikidata (P138 “named after,” instance of statue/monument/sculpture), or if their Wikipedia article describes statues or monuments erected in their honour.
Birthday as Holiday
Source: Wikidata (SPARQL) + Wikipedia text
Coded 1 if a public holiday named after or commemorating the leader exists in Wikidata (P138 named after or P547 commemorates, instance of public holiday), or if their Wikipedia article describes their birthday being celebrated as a national or public holiday.
State Hagiography
Source: Wikidata (SPARQL) + Wikipedia text
Coded 1 if ≥2 books or written works authored by or named after the leader exist in Wikidata (P50 author or P138 named after, instance of book/written work), or if their Wikipedia article mentions state-sponsored biographies, propaganda publications, mandatory ideological works (e.g., the “Little Red Book,” “Ruhnama”), or hagiography. Threshold is ≥2 from Wikidata to filter out routine memoirs.
Cult of Personality
Source: Wikipedia (categories + article text)
Coded 1 if either:
- The leader's Wikipedia page belongs to
Category:Cults of personalityor any subcategory. - The Wikipedia article text contains phrases such as “cult of personality,” “personality cult,” “leader cult,” “cult-like status,” “state worship/veneration,” or “deification.”
Currency Portrait
Source: Wikipedia (currency articles)
Coded 1 if the leader's surname appears within 300 characters of banknote-related keywords (e.g., “banknote,” “portrait,” “obverse,” “denomination”) in Wikipedia articles about the country's currency. The script searches up to 3 Wikipedia articles per country (found via search for “[country] currency” and “[country] banknotes”).
Merging Rules
Several indicators have two independent sources (Wikidata structured data + Wikipedia unstructured text). These are combined with OR logic: if either source codes 1, the final indicator is 1. If both sources code 0, it is 0. If one source is missing and the other codes 0, it remains 0 (conservative). This maximises recall without inflating false positives, since both sources draw from the same underlying Wikipedia/Wikidata ecosystem but use different extraction methods.
For leaders with multiple spells (e.g., returned to power), indicators are collapsed by taking the maximum across spells: if any spell is coded 1, the leader is coded 1.